Over the past decade the GSCI is down c.60%, erasing 3 decades of gains. We believe this streak of poor returns has reached an end, and that this re-covery in commodity prices will actually be the beginning of a much longer structural bull market for commodities driven by three key themes.
- 1. Revenge of the old economy: Structural under-investment in the old economy was accelerated during 2020 in response to Covid and ESG, leav-ing inadequate production capacity to meet a V-shaped vaccine driven demand recovery.
- 2. REV'ing demand through social need: Covid is ushering in a new era of policies aimed at social need instead of financial stability. This will likely create cyclically stronger, more commodity-intensive economic growth that should create an elusive cyclical upswing in demand. Three global initiatives have the potential to REV the global demand for commodities: Redistributional policies, Environmental policies, and Versatile supply chain initiatives.
- 3. Reflation feedback loop: Covid has led to a massive rise in government spending, particularly in the US. Although the dollar got a boost from a flight to safety at the beginning of the crisis, this support is likely to fade in 2021 and beyond, creating a positive feedback loop similar to the 1970s and 2000s. In addition, inflation tails risks are greater than at any other time since the 1970s due to the REV policies outlined above.
Jeffrey R. Currie, Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs
Jeff is the global head of Commodities Research in the Global Investment Research (GIR) Division. He is responsible for conducting research on com-modity market dynamics in the context of corporate risk management pro-grams, short- and long-term commodity investment strategies and asset allo-cation. Jeff is also a member of the Growth Markets Executive Committee. Jeff was European co-head of Economics, Commodities and Strategy Re-search from 2010 to 2012. He was based in London from 2003 until 2012, when he moved to New York. He has since returned to London.
Venue: Online via Zoom
Date/Time: Wednesday, 5 May 2021/ 6pm CEST
Admission: Free of charge